Elo model predictions | K=3.8 | Home Adv=47.3 | Platt-calibrated | April 26, 2026
| Matchup | Winner | Win% | Elo Edge | Top Away Players | Top Home Players |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers  |
Celtics |
72% | 140 pts | J. Brown 28.7p / 6.9r / 5.1a J. Tatum 21.8p / 10.0r / 5.3a P. Pritchard 17.0p / 3.9r / 5.2a |
T. Maxey 28.3p / 4.1r / 6.6a J. Embiid 26.9p / 7.7r / 3.9a P. George 17.3p / 5.3r / 3.6a |
 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors  |
Cavaliers |
61% | 107 pts | D. Mitchell 27.9p / 4.5r / 5.7a J. Harden 23.6p / 4.8r / 8.0a E. Mobley 18.2p / 9.0r / 3.6a |
B. Ingram 21.5p / 5.6r / 3.7a R. Barrett 19.3p / 5.3r / 3.3a S. Barnes 18.1p / 7.5r / 5.9a |
 San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers  |
Spurs |
75% | 218 pts | V. Wembanyama 25.0p / 11.5r / 3.1a D. Fox 18.6p / 3.8r / 6.2a S. Castle 16.7p / 5.3r / 7.4a |
D. Avdija 24.2p / 6.9r / 6.7a S. Sharpe 20.8p / 4.3r / 2.6a J. Grant 18.6p / 3.5r / 2.1a |
 Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets  |
Rockets |
56% | +-38 pts | L. Dončić 33.5p / 7.7r / 8.3a A. Reaves 23.3p / 4.7r / 5.5a L. James 20.9p / 6.1r / 7.2a |
K. Durant 26.0p / 5.5r / 4.8a A. Sengun 20.4p / 8.9r / 6.2a A. Thompson 18.3p / 7.8r / 5.3a |
70%+ = strong pick | 60-69% = moderate pick | Stats: season averages (PPG / RPG / APG)
For entertainment & analysis purposes only. Not financial advice.